The Mets trade Ryan Church to Atlanta for Jeff Francoeur.

I'm speechless.  This is like the front office equivalent of Luis Castillo dropping the pop up against the Yankees, except far worse, because the consequences extend beyond one game.  The #1 rule for any GM this season had to be "DON'T trade for Francoeur"...and here we are.  The only possible explanation I can see for this is that Omar Minaya realized he'll never be the Orson Welles of GMs, and so decided to be the Ed Wood.

Economists wouldn't have a problem with this idea...

I'm currently standing in line in Madison Square Park to get food from Shake Shack.  Shake Shack is a small walk-up restaurant in New York that serves excellent burgers and shakes.  It's extremely popular and, consequently, the lines for it often resemble those for the finer E-ticket rides at Disneyland.

This gave me a thought.  Many fast food chains, most notably Ben and Jerry's, will often have promotional days where they give away free product.  These days are, of course, accompanied by extremely long lines, because TANSTAAFL.  Many economics blogs have run commentaries on this phenomenon (I believe Freakonomics did; I'll try to add a link later).  I wonder if Shake Shack would be willing to run their own equivalent of this promotion: have a day where they charge $20-$30 for a burger, so you don't have to wait in line.

Like I said in the subject, economists would like the idea.  I suspect no one else would, though.

Return to blogging with a quick post, and maybe a longer one later

Hi, I haven't posted here in a while; I've been meaning to on several occasions, but I haven't had time to lately. Anyway, though, I have a long post about various things, including UZR and other fielding metrics, but first, speaking of UZR, I wanted to point out something exciting, that I've been thinking will happen for a while but finally has.

Check it out:



Ryan Braun officially has a positive UZR on the season for (I believe) the first time in his career.

It's a small sample, for sure, like UZR usually is, but personally I think it could last, and expect Braun, when all is said and done, to end up reliably a few runs above average in the outfield.

Braun's gettin' on base

Now, having just emphasized the small sample size present in the last post, I'm going to disregard my own advice and look at some of Braun's numbers so far this year. In particular, I wanted to analyze the comment I made earlier that Braun has been drawing walks at a solid pace. I made this graph of his AVG, OBP, and SLG so far this year:



As you can see, even when his AVG and SLG were swooning, Braun's OBP has consistently stayed very solid. It got as low as .304 on April 11th, but ever since April 13th it's been higher than .340, which suggests that even when he hasn't been hitting, Braun has been good enough at drawing walks to keep getting on base. Again, it's a very small sample size, so there's no way to tell if this will keep up, but it's very encouraging, as patience has always been the weakest part of Ryan Braun's game.

Very Quick Point About Sample Size

So, it's a cliché at this time of year to say that we shouldn't read too much into a batter's performance because it's such a small sample size, but I thought I'd use an example to illustrate that point. Going into the series in Philadelphia, Ryan Braun's slash line was sitting at .222/.340/.356, not completely terrible, but certainly not what we expect from him. However, coming out of Philly, after just three games, Braun has raised his line to the Pujolsian .327/.448/.600. Even after just the first game, where he went 5-for-5 with two homers, he had raised his line to an awesome .300/.397/.540. BTW, note how Braun's ISO discipline (OBP-AVG, basically a measure of patience at the plate and skill at drawing walks) has been pretty consistently great. Braun has actually been drawing walks this year, and if he keeps that up, he can go from being great at the plate to being an absolutely dominant player.

So the next time you read something about small sample size, keep this in mind. We're still at the point in the year where 5 at-bats can turn a guy from suck into awesome.

Happy Brewers Day! (For another hour and 15 minutes Milwaukee time)

Would've posted this earlier if I'd realized it, but I just came to the conclusion that April 19, in addition to being Patriot's Day, should be considered Brewers Day, as it's 4/19 (i.e. Molitor/Yount).  Perhaps there should be a celebration on August 28th, as well.  If you really like holidays, go ahead and throw in July 1st (or July 23rd).

Fun facts about Gary Sheffield #500

-Gary Sheffield, as has been noted elsewhere, is the first to join the 500 HR club with a pinch hit home run.

-Sheffield is the second to hit his 500th homer off of the first team he ever played for; the first to do this was Jimmie Foxx, on September 24, 1940. Sheffield and Foxx are the only members of the club to hit their 500th homers off of a team that they played for at any point in their careers.

-Sheffield has played for more teams than any other member of the 500 club, with 8 (Brewers, Padres, Marlins, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Tigers, Mets). Prior to his joining, Frank Robinson and Eddie Murray were both tied for the most clubs, with 5 (Reds, Orioles, Dodgers, Angels, Indians for Robinson, and Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Angels for Murray).